Industry experts agree that 2010 will not be a bed of roses after the scrapping bonus. The trade journal "kfz-betrieb" has compiled an expert overview in its current issue: The head of the Institute for Automotive Economics (Ifa) in Geislingen, Prof. Willi Diez, expects just 2.6 million new car registrations in Germany in 2010 due to the pull-forward effect of the environmental bonus. Robert Rademacher, President of the German Motor Vehicle Association (ZDK), also expects 2010 to be a difficult year for the industry: "2.8 million new registrations is a cautious forecast. But the pendulum could swing even further downwards."



"There have always been insolvencies in the trade. They will continue with around three to four daily insolvencies," believes Burkhard Weller. However, the managing partner of a multi-brand car dealership group expects a decline in new start-ups and takeovers. The result will be a "natural" concentration on larger networks or strong individual locations.



Cecra President Prof. Jürgen Creutzig also predicts a shrinking dealer network beyond Germany's borders: "We must expect an increase in dealer insolvencies and a concentration process throughout Europe." After all, even in normal times, the average dealership would have been in the black.



ZDK President Rademacher's recipe: "As few brands as possible, as many brands as necessary." Ultimately, according to Rademacher, the future of the multi-brand trade is crucially dependent on how things will proceed with the BER. Volume manufacturers such as Ford or Opel and importers such as Toyota constantly emphasize that independent dealerships will remain the preferred or only sales channel in the coming years. Volkswagen, too, has stated that it intends to limit itself to branches at strategic locations. Despite all the adversities, the ZDK President paints a positive picture of the future of the automobile and therefore also of automobile sales: "The majority of people associate particularly positive emotions with the automobile. People don't like to share what they are attached to with others. This applies to interpersonal relationships as well as to cars."



"kfz-betrieb" is the most widely read trade magazine in the automotive industry and has been informing the automotive trade and service sector for 98 years. "kfz-betrieb" is the official organ of the German Motor Vehicle Trade (ZDK), the professional interest group for around 40,000 car dealerships and workshops. Daily news from the entire automotive industry is available at www.kfz-betrieb.de and in the daily newsletter. The parent company Vogel Business Media is one of the leading German providers of specialist information with around 100 trade journals and 60 websites as well as numerous international activities. Its headquarters are in Würzburg.