In 2040, the inhabitants of medium-sized cities will account for 63 percent of total mobility spending worldwide, while megacities will only account for 6 percent, said Dannenberg. "It therefore doesn't make sense to only look at the mobility needs of the inhabitants of Paris and London." New concepts such as car sharing would take center stage there. In addition, mobility in city centers would be limited to purely electric cars.
In medium-sized cities, on the other hand, every household needs its own vehicle and a charging station if an electric car or plug-in hybrid is used, Dannenberg continued. Accordingly, this is where the greatest sales potential lies for car manufacturers and new players who will enter the mobility market as a result of the growing proportion of vehicles with alternative drive systems.
New players enter the mobility market
Dannenberg expects electromobility to bring about a lasting change in the automotive industry. "The wishes and environment of customers are becoming more complex. There are risks lurking here for car manufacturers because their traditional business model of selling vehicles no longer applies." The merging of living environments such as infotainment or energy supply with mobility will bring new payers into play, who will focus on benefit-based services. He named energy suppliers, IT companies, the telecommunications sector and the consumer electronics industry as important future market participants.
This is because the "financing" and "electricity" areas in particular will have the highest margins in mobility sales in the future. Similarly high profit margins can also be expected for new vehicle technologies such as batteries, power electronics and lightweight construction. "No car manufacturer will earn money with sales and traditional production anymore," said Dannenberg.
Winner China
Dannenberg sees China as the winner in the development towards electromobility. "If electromobility catches on anywhere in the world first, it will be in China." The consultant cited the relatively modern vehicle fleet in China as one of the reasons for this, which would allow faster penetration of electric drives. In addition, the Chinese government's efforts are centrally controlled and "structured like a general staff". Oliver Wyman forecasts an e-car share of 2.7 percent in China in ten years. Overall, around 30 percent of vehicles will be built by domestic car manufacturers in 2020 and the Chinese market will account for 28 percent of the global market.
Mobility: little potential for CO2 reduction
When it came to reducing CO2 emissions by replacing combustion engines with electric cars, Dannenberg urged the 160 or so participants at the "Würzburg Automotive Summit" to be realistic. "There are currently around 800 million vehicles on the roads worldwide, the vast majority of which are powered by combustion engines," said Dannenberg. By 2030, the number of vehicles will have risen to 1.3 billion. "Even in our most aggressive future scenario, no more than a quarter of these will be electric cars. This means that the total number of combustion vehicles worldwide will remain the same in twenty years." Oliver Wyman does not expect a significant reduction in the 800 million vehicles with combustion engines until 2060, which is why other industrial sectors, such as energy production, offer significantly greater potential for CO2 savings.
Current and comprehensive coverage of the Würzburg Automotive Summit at www.automobil-industrie.de.
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